Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (w/ Remember the Gas Tax Holiday UPDATE)

Not to join the throng knocking Jerome's observations about positive poll numbers for lifting the oil-ban drilling... like ANWR the issue has never been about who has the positive poll numbers and who doesn't.

This is a simple case where those who are FOR the ban need not outnumber those who don't object to the ban being lifted.

Other than the oil companies, there is no one clamoring for the ban to be lifted. They may not mind it, $4 gas may make them willing to try long-term solutions.

But no one will vote for one candidate or the other because of they now believe the ban should be lifted. If support is raising, it's raising because people are freaking out about gas -- but it's not like anyone who was once convinced about the sanctity of Florida's beaches are suddenly convinced to the contrary. You're seeing a shift in soft-support; and soft support in either direction doesn't affect elections.

But the people who are FOR the ban are the ones who will vote the issue -- because they're the ones who've been in this fight for ages. It's like the Cuba embargo. Polls show people are over it, increasingly Florida is moving away from it as an issue. But it's not going to move voters one way or another -- it'll be part of the cocktail of their decision in the election.

But the people who whom it's a VITAL issue will never budge. No candidate who wants to win Florida will go against the embargo -- even that vocal minority of Elian's Miami cousins is enough to make that move a political suicide.

Same with the tourist and environmentalists who support the ban wholeheartedly, and won't forget -- or let Florida forget -- anyone who would sell that coastline out.

It's about enthusiasm. Lifting the ban may have support, but beyond the already wealthy oil companies, it'll never have enthusiasm (as we saw with ANWR.) And since McCain and Crist are all flippityfloppy on it, they'll never be able to generate enthusiasm, because the message can be watered down with 5 minutes on YouTube.

Florida is now Obama's to lose... I can't see any other way around that.

UPDATE: This reminds me a bit of the 'gas tax holiday' issue. We argued the issue at great length here back when Indiana was the center of the political solar system. It polled well too, and seemed like a short-term solution, but most importantly set up Obama versus Big Oil profits and poll-driven political opportunism. And this was without any real built-in support for the drilling ban among the environmentalists or tourism industry. I may be mistaken on the post-mortem, but I recall Obama's strong finish in Indiana being proof of how poorly the Gas Tax Holiday played. But I could be wrong... I'm seeing the drilling ban as another skirmish in the same battlefield that brought us the idea of a gas tax holiday... and one that is equally winnable. Fill the comments with disagreement...



Display:


Charlie christ (1.00 / 0)

the immensely popular republican Gov of Florida is now switched his position on drilling....


Rise / Repeat / But for god's sake don't spin!
by aliveandkickin on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:11:45 PM EST

Re: Charlie christ (2.00 / 3)

He will soon be be the less "immensely popular Gov of Florida," when the tourist industry gets through with him. He's obviously either already McBush's VP or angling for it.


Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.
by Freespeechzone on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:16:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Charlie christ (2.00 / 1)

He was immensely popular when he was opposed. It's so EASY to fight against this in Florida. Any one of us could put together a montage of oil spills, oil rigs off beaches and just contrasting before and after shots. Any of us could couple the direct contradictions from these two. Any of us could point out how little this would do to lower the price of oil or that we could lower it ourselves with just an INKLING that we would actually focus on a tiny, tiny bit of energy conservation.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:03:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Charlie christ (2.00 / 1)

That's the point right there -- the people who DONT want this have the upper hand. Forget the oil spills... just run footage of George W. Bush in 2000 talking about drilling in ANWR and oil prices.

VO: When Bush ran, he promised more drilling would mean lower gas prices. (Bush quote) Gas prices are 3 dollars higher today. And what's McCain's solution? More drilling. (McCain quote) We need a real solution. Not the same tired lines.
/VO.

plus you can use the hypocrasy angle AND the environmental angle.

But there's no doubt the polls would be for drilling now. The question is, does anyone think anyone would vote this issue in favor of drilling?


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:10:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Charlie christ (2.00 / 1)

VO: When Bush ran, he promised more drilling would mean lower gas prices. (Bush quote) Gas prices are 3 dollars higher today. And what's McCain's solution? More drilling. (McCain quote) We need a real solution. Not the same tired lines.

Actually, the message needs to be a lot more simple than that. People who watch that could think "Oh no, gas prices went up because we didn't drill! Bush was right!"

Instead, substitute the government's statistics. Drilling in ANWR would reduce oil prices by 75 cents a barrel, ten years from now, assuming that OPEC doesn't throttle supply to compensate.

That's like three cents a gallon for gas. Put that stat on the left-hand side of the screen in black (with a backdrop of a gas pump at $4 a gallon perhaps), on the right-hand side put up the cost of what an accident clean-up would cost in red (overlaid on some picture of a oiled seagull, for instance), then switch to the amount of money that would go directly to the oil companies (picture of oil company HQ), then a rising number "estimating" the cost of lost tourism due to the drills offshore (with a nice Photoshopped illustration of what it would look like). It'd probably be an effective ad to swing the numbers.

You need to get past the impression that the US has gigantic stores of oil that environmentalists are sitting on top of and preventing drilling. In reality, it's that we think we have some, we're pretty sure where, but we need to rip everything up to find it.


by TCQuad on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:57:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And Arnold Schwarzenegger... (2.00 / 1)

Was an immensely popular Governator here in "Kolifoynya" when he first announced his "Year of Reform" in early 2005. Back then, support for his "reform agenda" messing with the unions, parental notification of abortions, and screwing with term limits mid-decade was high. But once progressive groups started fighting Arnold and educating the public about how dangerous his "reform agenda" really was, his special election went down in flames that November and Arnold had to switch to governing as a de-facto Democrat to rebuild his popularity.

The same can be done here. We don't always have to capitulate.


No way, no how, no McCain! :-)
by atdleft on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:42:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (2.00 / 1)

Ya, I expect there will be some serious backlash from tourist and environmental groups across Florida.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised is a local 527 started up there specifically against it.


Vote Change in '08!
by iowa dem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:33:13 PM EST

You're probably right... (none / 0)

I seriously doubt that offshore drilling will remain "popular"... Especially once we start airing those ads showing archive footage of Santa Barbara 1969 and Exxon Valdez 1989.

Hell, and we don't even have to limit ourselves to oil spills! Just showing current footage of oil derricks right by the beach should be enough to cause people to vomit. Do Floridians really want their beautiful coast tarnished forever?


No way, no how, no McCain! :-)
by atdleft on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:47:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're probably right... (2.00 / 1)

I don't think the Exxon Valdez had anything to do with offshore drilling, actually.  They drill the oil way up at the other end of the pipeline.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:54:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're probably right... (2.00 / 1)

Besides, we've got that 2006 "environmentally friendly" oil line break in Alaska to look at instead... and to draw to the lie that there is minimal ecological impact with new drilling.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:57:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Whoops! (none / 0)

My mistake. Sorry. I just checked, and you're right. Scratch Exxon Valdez.

However, the rest of the comment stands. :-)


No way, no how, no McCain! :-)
by atdleft on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:05:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Whoops! (none / 0)

But it's a sign of how strongly we all feel about oil spills and the importance of ecology that the Valdez still is synonymous with Bad Energy Policy.

It's become an environmental Alamo, and that should not go unnoticed, or unused.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:07:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (2.00 / 1)

And it's not like its hard to make an issue ad of "Big Oil's Record Profits" vs. "No change in gas prices for decades" plus "dead animals, lost tourism, kids with shovels and pails crying on an oil-slatered beach."

Again, this has got to be one of the greatest gifts of this cycle, if the dems play it right. How they could play it wrong escapes me, but we are talking about Democrats.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:48:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (2.00 / 1)

Great points.  Rec'd


by NewOaklandDem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:42:41 PM EST

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (2.00 / 1)

Cherry-picking polls based on secondary questions or the framing of questions is kind of questionable.


by spirowasright on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:57:56 PM EST

It polls well because people are ignorant. (2.00 / 1)

Lifting the offshore drilling band wouldn't do jack sht for oil or gas prices for two decades!

A poll question asking people wheher they want ugly oil derricks off their coasts that won't reduce the cost of gas or oil for 20 years would reverse those numbers pretty fast.

It's all about voter education and framing. A TV ad telling people these facts would actually richochet back on McCain and make HIM look bad.


by Hesiod Theogeny on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:22:38 PM EST

Re: It polls well because people are ignorant. (2.00 / 1)

Agreed.  Once people understand that you don't throw these things up in a day, and watch prices drop 2 bucks at the pumps the next, it's a no-brainer.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:33:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

True... (2.00 / 1)

Not only is offshore oil drilling environmentally unsound, but it's also economically impractical. First, we won't likely see the benefits of lower prices for 20-30 years. And secondly, it's pointless for us to keep looking for something that's fast running out.

Like it or not, the world's running out of oil. And when we also factor in the climate crisis and our need to end our carbon addiction, this whole rush to drill looks awfully stupid. Instead of drilling for oil, we should be looking at real long-term solutions like energy conserving technology and renewable energy. As long as Obama advocates this and makes it sound practical (as it really is), he'll be fine.


No way, no how, no McCain! :-)
by atdleft on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:53:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: True... (none / 0)

Agreed 100%.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:08:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (none / 0)

Don't fret, we can just believe in another reality!


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:24:46 PM EST

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (2.00 / 2)

What does that mean?

Certainly you don't think "reality" is a sudden change in longstanding support for the sensible ban on offshore oil drilling?

People are freaked out about gas prices, and would likely support going to the magical land of Faerie and mining pixies for light-sweet-crude if worded correctly on a hot day. But that doesn't mean a) that a sudden, poll-driven shift in view that b) siding against expert analysis is called for.

To the contrary, I think we saw with the reaction to the so-called "gas tax holiday" plan that ideas that poll well but make little sense, have -- not surprisingly -- little effect on 'reality.'

You may disagree -- and we have disagreed on that issue before. Do you still support a gas tax holiday as sensible politics, Jerome?


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:41:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (2.00 / 1)

If the media is going to go to the mat in order to make sure every man, woman and child in America understands that offshore drilling won't help the price of gas, then yeah, we can probably ignore the polls.

Now, I don't want to sound like one of those Hillary dead-enders, but I've never seen anything quite like the way the media came together as one to prove her wrong on the gas tax holiday.  Back when McCain was the only one pushing the idea, you didn't see journalists asking him to name one economist who supports the plan.  But when Hillary went there, whoo boy, they started falling all over themselves!  This is a short way of saying that I don't think we can count on the media to do their jobs this time, just because they did so one time in the past.

I do not read the polls to suggest that Democrats ought to just capitulate on the issue, but they are a serious warning alarm that we have a lot of educating to do.  If people knew that our own government concludes that offshore drilling won't have an effect on prices before 2030, then yeah, these numbers would change.  If someone like Barack Obama uses the bully pulpit to talk about facts like that, then yeah, the numbers would change.  But it's not going to happen just by us sitting around saying "no need to worry, the pro-drilling position isn't fact-based."


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (none / 0)

I think the fact that Hillary AND McCain were agreeing was the reason the media took such an interest. That's pretty unique, during a pretty unique time.

But, also, how often is there unanimous economic consent on anything? The Gas Tax plan was bad policy -- but it sure seemed like great politics.

I mean, a promise of lower gas prices, AND the lifting of a tax, AND the Republican standard-bearer, the last Democratic President and the bneck-and-neck running Demcratic Presidential Candidate all pushing the issue against the other candidate, who is an elitist, by the way.

The media coverage had to be big on that -- that's one crazy Jenga tower to see set up. And I never for a second imagined it would fall in Obama's favor.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed, Steve! (none / 0)

If there's one thing we definitely should remember from primary season, it's that we should NOT trust the media to do its job. And while I disagree with Jerome on offshore drilling, I do understand that we need to educate people about just how stupid this Bush-McCain proposal is. We need to let the people know that:

1. Offshore oil drilling is impractical, as we won't experience the benefits of higher supply and lower costs for DECADES.

2. Offshore oil drilling destroys our coastal ecosystems and irreparably scars our coastlines forever.

3. Offshore oil drilling is dangerously naive, as we're already running out of oil.

4. Offshore oil drilling is the WRONG way to go as we aim to solve the climate crisis by reducing our carbon footprint, NOT increasing it.


No way, no how, no McCain! :-)
by atdleft on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (none / 0)

I'd also add that no one should be advocating we sit on this issue.

To the contrary we should fire our political guns on this issue until there's nothing left but molten-lead and pulp. Metaphorically. Because it's a winner -- and could turn Florida blue for quite some time.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:03:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Fret about Drilling Ban Polls (none / 0)

I like the plain old reality just fine.


Obama/Adam West or Bruce Campbell or Lucy Lawless '08
by Purple with Green Stipes and Pink Polka Dots Dem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 04:52:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do it but make them PAY !! (2.00 / 1)

Better to diffuse the issue.

Rather than just be against something that requires a lot of argument to explain, just take the issue off the table.

Democrats could agree with selling leases for offshore drilling and ANWR but place restrictions and covenants on the leases.

1) Oil companies would have to prove they have maximized exploration and extraction at the leases they already own.  (I have heard, but have no knowledge, that current leases are sitting fallow)

2) All new leases would require an 80% royalty fee to the United States on all petroleum and natural gas extracted.  (why should we give it away?)

3) Elimination of all tax subsidies and credits to oil companies that receive new leases.

4) All new leases must be balanced with alternate energy research and development.  

5) Increase CAFE standards on petroleum powered autos to 42 mpg and light trucks to 26 mpg.

Imagine that the $12 billion dollars we give the oil companies today could, instead, subsidize solar electric systems on nearly 5 million homes with grants or credits of $2500 per home.

So yeah, we can grant new leases but we need something HUGE to balance it out.  Make it undesirable for oil companies to participate.

In the end, we AGREE to open new drilling.  Shuts up McCain.


by wblynch on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:31:38 PM EST

Re: Do it but make them PAY !! (none / 0)

While I still don't want to drill, this is a reasonable and well thought out idea.  I like the 80% royalty and "Oil companies would have to prove they have maximized exploration" parts best.


by NewOaklandDem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:37:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.