Not to join the throng knocking Jerome's observations about positive poll numbers for lifting the oil-ban drilling... like ANWR the issue has never been about who has the positive poll numbers and who doesn't.
This is a simple case where those who are FOR the ban need not outnumber those who don't object to the ban being lifted.
Other than the oil companies, there is no one clamoring for the ban to be lifted. They may not mind it, $4 gas may make them willing to try long-term solutions.
But no one will vote for one candidate or the other because of they now believe the ban should be lifted. If support is raising, it's raising because people are freaking out about gas -- but it's not like anyone who was once convinced about the sanctity of Florida's beaches are suddenly convinced to the contrary. You're seeing a shift in soft-support; and soft support in either direction doesn't affect elections.
But the people who are FOR the ban are the ones who will vote the issue -- because they're the ones who've been in this fight for ages. It's like the Cuba embargo. Polls show people are over it, increasingly Florida is moving away from it as an issue. But it's not going to move voters one way or another -- it'll be part of the cocktail of their decision in the election.
But the people who whom it's a VITAL issue will never budge. No candidate who wants to win Florida will go against the embargo -- even that vocal minority of Elian's Miami cousins is enough to make that move a political suicide.
Same with the tourist and environmentalists who support the ban wholeheartedly, and won't forget -- or let Florida forget -- anyone who would sell that coastline out.
It's about enthusiasm. Lifting the ban may have support, but beyond the already wealthy oil companies, it'll never have enthusiasm (as we saw with ANWR.) And since McCain and Crist are all flippityfloppy on it, they'll never be able to generate enthusiasm, because the message can be watered down with 5 minutes on YouTube.
Florida is now Obama's to lose... I can't see any other way around that.
UPDATE: This reminds me a bit of the 'gas tax holiday' issue. We argued the issue at great length here back when Indiana was the center of the political solar system. It polled well too, and seemed like a short-term solution, but most importantly set up Obama versus Big Oil profits and poll-driven political opportunism. And this was without any real built-in support for the drilling ban among the environmentalists or tourism industry. I may be mistaken on the post-mortem, but I recall Obama's strong finish in Indiana being proof of how poorly the Gas Tax Holiday played. But I could be wrong... I'm seeing the drilling ban as another skirmish in the same battlefield that brought us the idea of a gas tax holiday... and one that is equally winnable. Fill the comments with disagreement...|
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